Between gas being at an average of $4.35 a gallon, diesel at $6.17 a gallon, and a war in Iran that has been left unresolved for months, the midterms are looking increasingly worse for Republicans, even in places that would usually be an easy win for them.
Traditionally, going back to the 1930s, the party that holds the presidency usually loses the Houses. But this year, it feels like there is a higher chance for the party that is currently out of power, the Democrats, to potentially take the Senate as well.
Kansas is a notable example for this exception to the trend. Donald Trump won the state in 2024 by about 16 percentage points, and the state hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson. But the New York Times in conjunction with the Research Institute at Siena University (NYT/Siena Poll) polled in Kansas regarding Trump’s first performance in these first two years, and the results were stark. 45% of respondents to the poll strongly disapproved of the work that Trump has done regarding the economy. 46% strongly disapproved of his tariff policy, and 52% disapproved of his handling of the cost of living. 45% of respondents also thought that Kansas had been hurt by Trump’s policies. But how will that affect Republican senators, especially across the country?
Midterms happen halfway through the term of a president, and they are used by voters as a referendum on the current president, and his party. Historically, the lower the approval rating is, the less likely the president’s party will fare well in the midterm elections. Trump is firmly in the disapproval category, with all of the most widely trusted polls having him hover around an average of 60% disapproval. There are growing concerns amongst Republicans that a wipeout is coming, and they cannot even distance themselves from the president, as the vulnerable ones are relying on his $400 million war chest to bolster his base to turn out and vote for them. These advertisements and campaign strategies are also centering Trump more than they did in 2022.
Trump won Alaska by 13 percentage points in 2024, and now, the Republican senator, Dan Sullivan, is in a race where his Democrat competitor, Mary Peltola, is polling 7 points ahead of him, according to the NYT/Siena Poll. Alaskans have indicated in the same poll that the economy is the top-of-mind issue for them, and with Trump polling at a 50% strongly disapprove rating for the economy, Sullivan is likely facing an uphill battle.
Texas is another contested race, between Trump-backed candidate Ken Paxton and Democratic Nominee James Talarico. Paxton is another questionable candidate, as he has previously been impeached by his own party when he acted as Attorney General of Texas for corruption, and been indicted on felony charges for securities fraud. The incumbent, John Cornyn, lost in the Republican primary, and now Paxton is going against Talarico, who is leading him by six percentage points. The economy was also a top issue for Texans in the NYT/Siena poll, and 47% of respondents strongly disapprove of the job Trump has been doing with the economy.
Overall, it does not look great for Republicans in the midterm. A majority of the promises Trump made in the lead-up to the election have either not been fulfilled (such as a replacement for the Affordable Care Act), or were actively broken (no foreign wars). Republicans will hopefully realize that being subservient to their party leader will cost them their careers, especially if they are making decisions against popular opinion, which actively make the country less powerful, especially geopolitically. The war in Iran was beyond the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back; it’s been more like a ton of cinderblocks.
