Ocean temperatures hit record highs this season, and sea surface warmth in the Atlantic ranked among the top readings ever recorded. The forecast was clear: expect big hurricanes, expect them strong, and expect trouble for the East Coast. But the season has come and gone, and now we’re left wondering, “did it really happen?”
But the predictions weren’t wrong; the storms just went somewhere else.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season gave us exactly what scientists predicted in terms of raw power. Three hurricanes reached Category 5 strength. Hurricane Melissa’s wind speed peaked at 175 mph , becoming the strongest storm to hit Jamaica in recorded history. Hurricane Erin exploded over the open Atlantic. Hurricane Humberto churned across empty water. The ocean energy was there. The storms were there. However, through September, for the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane touched the U.S. mainland.
People noticed the gap between prediction and impact. Some called it a quiet season, while others questioned whether climate warnings overstated the risk. Both responses miss what actually happened.
The Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes by late October. That hit the lower end of forecasts, but the number of major hurricanes matched predictions perfectly. As an example, climate attribution studies found that warming oceans made Hurricane Melissa’s rapid strengthening 500 to 900 times more likely, and added roughly 10 mph to its peak winds.
But despite these correct predictions, the hurricanes hardly affected the U.S. Why?
The Bermuda High, a massive zone of high pressure that steers Atlantic hurricanes, positioned itself unusually far east in 2025. Typically, this system resides closer to Bermuda in the mid-Atlantic and directs storms toward the Gulf Coast or up the Eastern Seaboard. This year, it parked near the Azores 2,000 miles to the east. That shift created strong steering currents that curved hurricanes northeast into the open Atlantic before they could threaten land. Hurricane Erin passed 200 miles off Cape Hatteras. Hurricane Gabrielle initially aimed for Bermuda, then veered sharply toward Europe. Hurricane Humberto stayed over open water for its entire life. Only Tropical Storm Chantal made U.S. landfall in July, hitting the Carolinas and killing six people in floods.
The steering was only part of the story. During late August and early September, right when hurricanes should peak, the tropics went silent. No major storms formed between Aug. 29 and Sept. 16. That was remarkable, because September is typically the busiest month for hurricanes and named storms. But instead, we got nearly four weeks of nothing. This is partly because of the prominence of Saharan dust this summer, which dries the air, warms the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and increases wind shear. From June through August this dust was pouring off the African coast in thick, persistent plumes, choking off the thunderstorms that feed tropical systems. Dust dominated the early season, delaying the first named storm until late June, three weeks after the season’s official start.
Then the wind shear, a sudden change in wind speed or direction, hit. Caribbean shear ran high in early summer, which historically correlates with less active seasons. By late August, shear dropped to near-record lows in the western Atlantic, but a different barrier to storm formation emerged. A trough of low pressure formed over the southeastern United States, pulling dry air from the subtropics into the tropics. The dry air, combined with high sea-level pressure across the eastern Atlantic, created widespread atmospheric stability. The air was too stable and too dry for storms to develop, even though the ocean was warm enough.
African weather patterns also added to the barrier. Weak late summer rainfall meant weak African easterly waves, which meant fewer opportunities for storms to form.
Then the pattern flipped. Late September brought a sudden shift. The dry air pulled back, the high pressure weakened, and the tropics woke up. Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda came within 465 miles of each other, the closest two storms have come since satellite measurements began in the 1960s. Hurricane Melissa formed and exploded into the season’s most powerful storm, holding Category 5 strength for 36 hours straight. So, no, predictions weren’t wrong — the atmosphere just needed to cooperate with the storms.
This is the part people need to understand. Warm water fuels hurricanes, but it does not steer them. Climate change is making the ocean warmer and giving storms more energy when they form. That means higher peak winds, faster intensification, and heavier rainfall. Scientists have been clear about this for years, and the 2025 season confirmed it. However, climate models do not predict where the Bermuda High will sit in any given September, or whether a trough will form over Georgia, or how much dust will blow off the African continent in July. Those are weather patterns, not climate trends. They matter enormously for where storms go and whether they make landfall, but they do not alter the long-term trend.
One quiet season for U.S. impacts does not mean climate scientists were wrong. It means that we got lucky. Scientists predicted favorable conditions for intense hurricanes, and we got three Category 5 hurricanes. They predicted above-normal activity, and we got 13 storms and five hurricanes. It was only because of unpredictable weather systems that these dangerously powerful storm systems were pushed away from densely inhabited areas.
Over the past two decades, the Atlantic has produced a higher percentage of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes compared to total storms. Rapid intensification has become more common. Rainfall rates have increased. Those trends align with what models predict should happen as oceans warm. However, individual seasons will still vary. Some years will see storms curve out to sea. Some years will see storms slam into the Gulf Coast. The long-term trend is toward stronger storms, rather than an increase in the number of storms hitting any specific coastline.
The 2025 season felt off because it separated intensity from impact. We saw the power that warm oceans can create. We also saw that atmospheric steering still decides where that power goes. Climate change is loading the dice for stronger storms. Ignoring increasing risk of catastrophe leaves you unprepared.
The season is not over yet. November might still produce storms. However, even if it ends quietly for the U.S., the takeaway should not be that scientists overstated the risk. Instead, it means that we need to prepare for even worse storms next year: The warm water will still be there; the storms will still intensify. Eventually, the steering will send something terrible our way. And the scientists will have every right to say “I told you so.”
