This is a wonderful time on the baseball calendar. Until Feb. 14 (when pitchers and catchers report), we get to hear about how this player dropped 20 pounds and this player put on 20 pounds in all the right places and how this guy added a cutter and this guy is recommitting himself to plate discipline…it’s a glorious time.
But what’s even more fun about this little hiatus is the rash of trades and signings that’ll start up soon. We’re not quite at that bonanza of head-scratching decisions that is the MLB Winter Meetings, but it’s just around the corner. Until then, here are the top three free agents to keep an eye on this winter.
Max Scherzer, SP
It was another stellar year for 30-year-old Scherzer, and especially big for the Tigers in a year where Justin Verlander revealed that he is, in fact, mortal. Over the last two years, Scherzer’s gone 39-8 (!), posted a 3.02 ERA, struck out over 10 batters per nine innings, and just generally looked like one of the top pitchers in the game. He’s never had any injury problems, and he’s only been in the league for seven years. The man’s going to get a big deal.
You may remember that Scherzer turned down a six-year, $144 million deal back in the spring. It was a divisive move – was he making a realistic bet on himself to earn a bigger deal, or was it wishful thinking? It helps that he employs noted villainous agent Scott Boras, but there are a few things that could work against him.
The data on pitchers over 30 is extensive and morbid – see Halladay, Roy. Heavy usage or not, there’s just a certain depreciation of value and skill around that age. That, combined with a preponderance of pitchers of not insignificant talent on the market who can be had for a fraction of the cost, could cut into his deal.
Ultimately, though, he’s a pitcher who looks to be at the top of his game, and someone is going to give this guy way too much money.
What he should get: five years, $120 million
What he will get: seven years, $170 million
Where he’ll go: The Cubs and Dodgers have been bandied about, but my URos are on the Yankees.
Jon Lester, SP
From June 28 to the end of the year, through trade rumors, a trade, a coastal change, and an insertion into a bitter playoff run, Jon Lester put up a 1.82 ERA. Opposing hitters could only muster a .586 OPS against him, and there were grumblings of his name around the Cy Young award.
He’s a tremendous pitcher. He’s also the same age as Scherzer, but with a lot more mileage on him. His pitching motion is much more conducive to a long career, and has also never dealt with injury issues.
Like Scherzer, he’s going to command a mammoth contract, one that’ll be difficult for a lot of teams to stomach for a player of his age. A return to Boston seems likely, but don’t be surprised if he chases a better offer somewhere else.
What he should get: five years, $115 million
What he will get: six years, $140 million
Where he’ll go: A return to the glorious Boston Red Sox.
Victor Martinez, C/1B/DH
Victor Martinez, man. 36 years old and still chugging. “Chugging” isn’t even really the right word – he’s actually coming off the best offensive year of his stellar career. Martinez only played 37 games in the field last year, and while he’ll never win any track meets, the guy can still flat-out hit.
He had a career-high 32 homeruns last year and led the AL in both OBP and OPS, no small feat in the junior circuit. He’s been around more than a few playoff teams, and that kind of veteran leadership is coveted throughout the whole league.
The only thing working against him besides his age is his immobility. Most likely, any team signing Martinez is committing 130 games at DH to one guy, which is nothing to sneeze at in a league that thrives on signing 30-somethings to come in and just hit. Are teams going to be willing to spend big money on one guy, when they could get near-comparable production out of a committee? It’s unclear at this time.
What he should get: two years, $30 million
What he will get: three years, $45 million
Where he’ll go: A team that’s perpetually looking for hitting – the Seattle Mariners.
Update: Victor Martinez has signed for four years, $70 million with the Tigers.
Bernstein is a member of the class of 2018.
