Trump has been in American politics for over a decade now, and is halfway through his final term. Now that the midterms are nearly over, there are growing questions over the future of both parties, especially for the Republican party, in the wake of a so-called blue tsunami. On both sides, I have a few theories about the path forward for American politics. But first, we must set the context of the current American moment.
We are currently in a war in Iran that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing a global energy crisis. Soaring gas and diesel prices make everything here in U.S. (and worldwide) extremely expensive, because fuel costs very directly shape the cost of everyday things. “Liberation Day” tariffs ended up turning allies against us, and have made things so much more expensive in addition to the war. Unpopular and brutal ICE operations and weird pet projects like the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting pool, ballrooms, renaming bodies of water, and triumphal arches make the administration look like its priorities aren’t straight at all. This all contributed to the shellacking that we saw Tuesday.
First: The Republican party. There are three ways that this could go. The first way is a complete distancing from Trump — the most radical possibility being pressure from the Republican party for Trump to resign. Much of the post-election discourse suggests that Trump is toxic to Republican ambitions in 2028. At the extreme end, if elected Republicans feel that Trump’s hold over their core base of supporters has been largely broken, they may feel free to fully break with him, allying with Democrats to investigate and potentially impeach him and his allies. On the more moderate end, elected Republicans may simply feel free to vote against his priorities and publicly criticize his conduct. The second option is that Trump goes through the next two years as a lame duck, while maintaining his monolithic dominance over the party and its base, and the ensuing power vacuum after his departure creates massive friction and intra-party splintering.
The last option is that the GOP quickly recovers, without explicitly ditching Trump, and rallies behind a new candidate; likely one capable of distancing themself from Trump’s image. The 2028 primary season is almost guaranteed to start in earnest within the next few months, and J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Ron DeSantis have already emerged as major contenders for the Republican nomination. No matter what happens, Trump’s immense unpopularity and his legally-mandated exit from a decade dominating national Republican politics pose a major problem for GOP candidates in the immediate future.
The Democrats have a few options as well. They could attempt to put forth legislation in the new Congress that either Trump could veto (which, with the right messaging, could be used to contribute to the unpopularity of congressional Republicans come 2028), as he has been suggesting that he would. In the unlikely possibility that Trump becomes uncharacteristically cooperative, Democrats may pursue policy compromises with Trump, leveraging the immense legislative power they won in the midterms to win concessions on key issues like the Iran War. Another possibility is that the Democrats get bogged down in investigations and hearings, failing to produce anything meaningful by the 2028 election aside from a series of reports on various corrupt and scandalous members of the current administration. And of course, there is always the possibility of infighting between the establishment base of the party and the new class of incoming progressive populists, including an unprecedented eight Democratic Socialists of America-backed House representatives.
Whatever happens to Trump over the next few years, it’s up to the voters to hold their respective parties accountable. The 2028 presidential race to win over the American people, in effect, started the day after the midterms. May the best party win!
