In 2000, a majority of residents were registered with the Republican party, numbering at about 146,437 compared to the 142,479 residents registered as Democrats. County-wide offices often reflected such makeup — but from 2000 to 2024, party makeup shifted, and the Democrats took on the challenge of reshaping Monroe County politics.
It was 2004 when the tides began to change, and the Democrats managed to outperform the Republicans in party enrollment. Since then, the trend has continued, and Republicans now hold far less voters compared to just 20 years ago.
As of the Monroe County Board of Elections’ most recent reporting on Oct. 1, Democrats have a sizable advantage county-wide, with around 204,393 voters compared to 125,611 registered Republican voters. With a little less than a two-to-one advantage, it seems that it would be impossible to ever win a county-wide race in Monroe – except it isn’t.
Up until 2019, Republicans, despite having less voters, actually won several county-wide races — from County legislature and executive positions to county judge races. One reason for this could be the presence of two factors outside of the main two political parties: Independents and unaffiliated voters.
Monroe County Board of Elections’ data suggests that at the same time that Republicans were losing enrollment, the Independent party saw upticks in registration. Simultaneously, voters have increasingly opted to not affiliate with any party, choosing to be “Blanks,” or unaffiliated — which means that they cannot vote in party primaries, but can still vote in general elections as any registered member.
Such a trend in registration raises questions about the future of Monroe County’s voter demographics.
An indicator could be recent congressional election results. In 2014, first-term town supervisor Mark Assini (R) almost won a seat considered a Democratic stronghold against incumbent congresswoman Louise Slaughter (D). In fact, the race was so close that it ended up being one of the last calls for the 2014 elections nationally. Despite the Democrats holding an advantage of over 46,000 registered voters against Republicans, Slaughter won by less than 1,000 votes.
New York's 25th congressional seat, which encompasses the entirety of Monroe County, was easily won by Democrats until 2022, when Republican La’Ron Singletary came within five points of a possible victory and over-performed general expectations for the race. He garnered 45% of the vote in the Monroe County portion of the congressional district, despite there being a disparity of 80,000 registered voters between the parties.
This trend can be explained in several ways — either Democrats are not going out to vote because of a lack of enthusiasm about candidates, or Republicans are garnering a sizable coalition of Democrats and unaffiliated to heighten their chance of securing a local victory.
With all these trends in mind, it seems that this election cycle could be hotly contested for New York's 25th Congressional District.
Editor's Note: Austin DeLorme has consulted for and volunteered with the Monroe County Republican party. He is also the founding chair and current senior advisor for the Monroe County Teen Republicans.
